At this time of year, security companies usually try to predict what will happen during the coming year. Here are my ‘predictions’ (which are also those of our anti-malware laboratory, of course :-)).
The cloud is here. Many of us already use it, probably without realizing. Who doesn’t use Hotmail or Gmail to check email and Flicker to store photos? Cloud-based services are not only limited to storage, but also to data processing. This is a tool that can save companies considerable investment, and as such it is becoming increasingly popular. In the security area, the market is constantly evolving towards real-time, cloud-based protection. In 2009, Panda has already launched the first security products based exclusively in the cloud…
Malware. Unfortunately, the amount of malware will not decrease in 2010. On the contrary, it will continue increasing exponentially. Due to the greater efficiency and speed provided by cloud-based technologies, malware creators will probably create more samples to evade detection and removal. The purpose, however, will not change: infections will continue to be geared towards financial profit. Consequently, fake antiviruses (rogueware), bots and banker Trojans will still rule the roost.
Social engineering techniques will continue to be popular among the criminal fraternity, particularly those targeting search engines (BlackHat SEO) and social networks, along with ‘drive-by-download’ infections from Web pages. In the case of social networks, we have seen numerous examples of worms and Trojans affecting Twitter, Facebook, etc. Malware-creators tend to go where large numbers of users are. These platforms will therefore be one of the main targets.
Windows 7… How will Windows 7 affect malware development? Considerably, we believe, given the warm welcome that the market has given to this operating system. As practically all new computers are coming with Windows 7 64-bit, criminals will be busy adapting malware to the new environment.
…and Mac. The market share of Mac PCs has increased over the last few years. Although there are still not enough users to make the platform as profitable as PCs, it is becoming gradually more attractive to cyber-crooks. Like PCs, Mac computers are used to access social networks, check email and surf the Web (the main malware distribution channels used by cyber-criminals). Mac is no longer a safe haven against malware. In 2009 we have already seen numerous attacks, and these will increase in 2010.
What about cell phones? We believe 2010 will not be the year of threats to mobile phones either. The PC is a homogenous platform, with 90% of the world’s computers running Windows on Intel, which means that each bug created has a potential victim pool of 90% of the world’s computers. The mobile phone scenario is much more heterogeneous with a multitude of different vendors using different hardware and operating systems.
These are the predictions; let us see whether they have come true in a year’s time. I would like to finish with a message for soccer fans: The 2010 World Cup in South Africa will be exploited by cyber-criminals in numerous ways (fake tickets, junk mail, etc.). Don’t drop your guard.
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